The doubt started to creep in over the weekend. This might not have worked. I have no reason to believe it didn’t work, but I have nothing to make me believe it did work. Welcome to the mind games of the 2WW! So I did my math, in an attempt to make myself feel better. What are the odds of three embryo transfers in a row not resulting in a “take home” baby? Let’s assume a 50% success rate for a fresh IVF, and 30% for a FET. If I remember my high school math, the probability of multiple independent events resulting is a given outcome is the product of the individual probabilities: 0.5 (chance of a failed IVF) * 0.7 (chance of a failed FET) * 0.7 (chance of another failed FET) = 24.5% chance of still not having a baby after three cycles (which interestingly is greater than the probability that a healthy couple will get pregnant on any single cycle of TTC). On the flip side, you could say “but that’s a 75% chance that you will have a baby at the end of all this!” Unfortunately, I don’t think it works that way. We already know the first two cycles failed. The fact that those failed does not increase the chance of success with this FET to 75%. I think we are still looking at a 30% chance of success, which at least is greater than a 24.5% chance of failure. Assuming I’m doing my math right.
But numbers are funny. In the end, they really don’t matter. I think they are helpful for making decisions–would you spend $3000 on something that only had a 30% chance of working? How about $10,000 for a 50% chance? But once you make the decision, all that matters is what your individual outcome is. Whether something has a 99% chance of working or a 9% chance doesn’t matter, if you end up in the group without success.
So the wait continues. It’s going to be a long week. I am making progress on my “to do” list though, and have a few more items to keep me occupied this week:
give up caffeinetoday the barrista at my coffee place asked “Why decaf?” with a knowing tone to her voice. “Just because,” I said. “We are usually the first people to know when women are pregnant,” she replied. “They start ordering decaf.” Yeah. That was a fun start to my Monday.
- finish baby gift #1–getting closer. I might not finish the entire thing, but I will finish the first of three parts.
- figure out baby gifts #2 and beyond
- submit forms for acupuncture reimbursement–printing out the form now
plant my garden–done! Now I just need to create defenses against snails and birds.
- finish the two socks I am currently knitting–sock #2 is almost done. I don’t really like it, but I will still finish it.
fix the seat cushions for the dining room table–done!
- make the shade for the kitchen (ala Pinterest)–this didn’t happen this weekend.
- organize my recipes and print new cookbook pages—I have everything sitting on the coffee table, waiting to be organized.
clean the bathroom–I do love a clean bathroom
- find an article for journal club
plan next week’s dinners–-Mexican fiesta last night, pasta tonight, steak salad later this week and crab cakes on Friday. make something delicious for breakfast one weekend–apple oatmeal pancakes, which were ok. The maple butter cream that I put on top was *amazing.* I need to figure out what else I can put that on, because eating it straight out of the bowl seems a little gauche.
- get a pedicure–probably Saturday, but if it is sunny, Saturday might involve walking, breakfast and the Vizsla meet-up, so we’ll see. My toes need this though.