The doubt started to creep in over the weekend. This might not have worked. I have no reason to believe it didn’t work, but I have nothing to make me believe it did work. Welcome to the mind games of the 2WW! So I did my math, in an attempt to make myself feel better. What are the odds of three embryo transfers in a row not resulting in a “take home” baby? Let’s assume a 50% success rate for a fresh IVF, and 30% for a FET. If I remember my high school math, the probability of multiple independent events resulting is a given outcome is the product of the individual probabilities: 0.5 (chance of a failed IVF) * 0.7 (chance of a failed FET) * 0.7 (chance of another failed FET) = 24.5% chance of still not having a baby after three cycles (which interestingly is greater than the probability that a healthy couple will get pregnant on any single cycle of TTC). On the flip side, you could say “but that’s a 75% chance that you will have a baby at the end of all this!” Unfortunately, I don’t think it works that way. We already know the first two cycles failed. The fact that those failed does not increase the chance of success with this FET to 75%. I think we are still looking at a 30% chance of success, which at least is greater than a 24.5% chance of failure. Assuming I’m doing my math right.

But numbers are funny. In the end, they really don’t matter. I think they are helpful for making decisions–would you spend $3000 on something that only had a 30% chance of working? How about $10,000 for a 50% chance? But once you make the decision, all that matters is what your individual outcome is. Whether something has a 99% chance of working or a 9% chance doesn’t matter, if you end up in the group without success.

So the wait continues. It’s going to be a long week. I am making progress on my “to do” list though, and have a few more items to keep me occupied this week:

  1. give up caffeine today the barrista at my coffee place asked “Why decaf?” with a knowing tone to her voice. “Just because,” I said. “We are usually the first people to know when women are pregnant,” she replied. “They start ordering decaf.” Yeah. That was a fun start to my Monday.
  2. finish baby gift #1–getting closer. I might not finish the entire thing, but I will finish the first of three parts.
  3. figure out baby gifts #2 and beyond
  4. submit forms for acupuncture reimbursement–printing out the form now
  5. plant my gardendone! Now I just need to create defenses against snails and birds.
  6. finish the two socks I am currently knitting–sock #2 is almost done. I don’t really like it, but I will still finish it.
  7. fix the seat cushions for the dining room tabledone!
  8. make the shade for the kitchen (ala Pinterest)–this didn’t happen this weekend.
  9. organize my recipes and print new cookbook pagesI have everything sitting on the coffee table, waiting to be organized.
  10. clean the bathroomI do love a clean bathroom
  11. find an article for journal club
  12. plan next week’s dinners-Mexican fiesta last night, pasta tonight, steak salad later this week and crab cakes on Friday.
  13. make something delicious for breakfast one weekendapple oatmeal pancakes, which were ok. The maple butter cream that I put on top was *amazing.* I need to figure out what else I can put that on, because eating it straight out of the bowl seems a little gauche.
  14. get a pedicure–probably Saturday, but if it is sunny, Saturday might involve walking, breakfast and the Vizsla meet-up, so we’ll see. My toes need this though.
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5 Responses to 4dp5dt

  1. Jen says:

    Curse those sly baristas! I stopped going to my regular coffee/tea place after my barista made a comment about me being pregnant. *sigh*

    I’m sorry you’re feeling that this transfer didn’t work. I’m going to keep hoping you’re wrong!

  2. Cristy says:

    On Saturday, I had a barista ask the guy in front of me when he was going to knock-up his wife. The look of horror on my face apparently was enough to make her lose her concentration and forget to ring up both our drinks. Score on that end, but still enough to make me not want to go back to that coffee shop for awhile.

    I understand the doubt. But I’m not giving up yet. There’s still a chance that the embies are burrowing in and that there will be good news soon. So find some distraction (forget about thinking positively, just don’t think) and let us cheer you on.

  3. JM says:

    Wishing you the best of luck! I know how hard the mind games can be. I truly thought I was pregnant after some really vivid dreams with our IVF, and it was a BFN. I truly thought I was pregnant again after our FET, and it was a chemical whose HCG never rose above 50. My transfer for FET2 is in a week, and I have no idea what to think, or what I’ll be able to trust. Clearly I can’t trust my thoughts, and it’ll be hard to trust a positive test, too. Holding hope for you in this cycle, and that it results in your take home baby.

  4. DandelionBreeze... previously NYMum says:

    The 2WW is certainly full of mind games… and I wish stats were on our side more. Thinking of you for your 2WW xo

  5. Jessah says:

    Wish we could do #14 together. I could really use a pedi. Hope the rest of your 2ww flies by.

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